Retirement Runway Calculator

About You

Start with the basics — your age, when you plan to retire, and what you currently spend. This is the foundation of every projection in the tool.

Current Age

Retirement Age

Lifespan Target

How fast prices rise each year (%)

Current Yearly Expenses ($)

Your Savings & Portfolio

Enter what you have saved today and what you expect to add before retirement. If you hold multiple asset types — equities, bonds, pension funds — you can add them all so the nest-egg projection is as accurate as possible.

Nest Egg at Retirement

Enter nest egg manually

📈 Equities

Current Balance ($)

Annual Contributions ($)

Expected annual growth (%)

🏛 Bonds

🏦 Provident Fund / DC Pension

🛡 Insurance / Policy

Projected Nest Egg in 13y

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Supplemental Income (reduces portfolio withdrawals)

🏛 Pension

🏠 Rental Income

Tax Settings Optional · Premium

Because the amount you keep after tax is what actually funds your retirement — not the gross figure you withdraw. Enable this to model the real cost of each withdrawal based on your account types and tax rates.

Model tax impact on withdrawals

Portfolio Account Mix

Must sum to 100%. Determines what portion of your withdrawals faces each tax regime.

Pre-tax % (401k/IRA)

Fully taxable on withdrawal

Post-tax % (Roth)

Tax-free withdrawals

Brokerage % (taxable)

Gains only taxed

Effective Tax Rates

Use your blended marginal rate including state/local tax. Country-agnostic — you know your situation best. What is effective tax rate? →

Pre-tax withdrawal rate %

Federal + state on ordinary income

Brokerage gains rate %

Long-term capital gains rate

Adjustments

Other taxable income ($/yr)

Pension, SS etc. — fills lower brackets, pushing withdrawals into higher ones

Brokerage cost basis %

% of brokerage that is original contribution — only gains are taxed

Investment Returns Over Time Premium

Your expected return won't be the same at 62 as it is at 85. Set a different growth rate for each stage of retirement — from a growth-oriented early phase to a conservative late phase. The calculator uses each period's rate to project your portfolio accurately.

Retirement split into 5 equal periods

Set a different expected return for each period of your retirement.

IRR inputs are

Nominal = includes inflation. Returns will not be adjusted.

Weighted average IRR —

ℹ Capital Market Assumptions used in the calculator

The allocation calculator uses long-run nominal (pre-inflation) return assumptions: Equities 9.0% · Bonds 4.0% · Real Estate 4.0% · Cash 2.5% · Insurance 3.0%. The Real Estate figure reflects capital appreciation only — if you receive rental income, enter it separately in Section 2 → Supplemental Income → Rental Income. These are approximate long-run averages; actual returns will vary.

Stress Test Settings & Legacy Premium

Configure how aggressively your spending tracks investment returns across periods, and set an inheritance target. These settings drive the Sequence of Returns Stress Test in your results.

Amount to leave behind ($)

⚠ Re-lock after changing any parameters to keep scenarios comparable. Set to $0 to fully exhaust the portfolio by age 100.

📉 Market Crash Scenario

The tool will simulate a market crash at two moments — at the start of retirement and at mid-retirement — using the parameters below. After the crash, returns resume your plan's IRR schedule at whatever period applies. The gap between these two outcomes is your real sequence-of-returns exposure.

Crash duration (years)

How many years the crash lasts before recovery

Average return during crash (%)

Annual portfolio return during the crash (0% = stagnation, negative = real crash)

Results update automatically as you change inputs

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Your dashboard is ready

Fill in your details in the My Plan tab, then click "View My Projections" to see your full retirement analysis here.

Nest Egg at Retirement

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Baseline Year 1 Withdrawal

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Safe withdrawal rate: —%

Avg Portfolio IRR

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weighted across 5 periods

Portfolio Balance Through Retirement — withdraw → earn (conservative)

Baseline (planned spending)

Optimized (max withdrawal)

📊 Spending Analysis

📋 G-K Scenario Summary

Run a projection to see scenario summary

🛡 Guyton-Klinger Dynamic Spending

Min. spending floor % of Yr-1

Mark as failed if floor breached

Spending adjusts each year based on actual portfolio performance. Prosperity rule raises spending in good years; Capital Preservation rule cuts it when the portfolio is under stress.

Run a projection to see Guyton-Klinger spending path

📊 Per-Period Withdrawal — 4-Scenario Comparison

Planned withdrawal vs what each G-K strategy actually delivers at the start of each retirement period.

Period

Planned

G-K (nominal)

G-K Crash (Start)

G-K Crash (Mid)

Run a projection to see period comparison

For illustrative purposes only. Not financial advice. Projections assume constant inflation-adjusted withdrawals and fixed returns per period.

Monte Carlo Simulation

Returns are log-normally distributed where the geometric mean equals your IRR input. Portfolio Survival uses fixed spending (honest depletion risk). Income Stability Score uses G-K adaptive spending against your floor.

Simulations

Click a scenario to explore its detailed results below

Portfolio Balance Fan

Fixed inflation-adjusted withdrawal — honest depletion risk

10th–90th %ile

25th–75th %ile

Median

Deterministic plan

Survival Probability Over Time

Withdrawal Sensitivity

Success rate at different year-1 withdrawal levels — selected scenario, G-K guardrails applied

Income Stability Score Over Time

Final Balance Distribution at Age —

Simulated Annual Withdrawals — Spending Fan

Withdrawal Snapshot — All 3 Scenarios

Period start values · P50 median · P10–P90 range · all scenarios side by side